Ukraine-Russia Talks: Smoke, Secrets & War 💔🔥

Ukraine has announced a “common understanding” with the United States regarding a peace deal intended to end the war with Russia. This proposal stems from a 28-point plan initially presented to Kyiv by the U.S. government last week, following weekend negotiations in Geneva involving American and Ukrainian officials. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the plan has been revised with input from both sides, and announced that his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week. Simultaneously, U.S. Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian leaders this week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated his readiness to meet with Trump to address “sensitive points,” with the aim of securing a meeting before the end of the month. “I am counting on further active cooperation with the American side and with President (Donald) Trump,” Zelensky said. “Much depends on America, because Russia pays the greatest attention to American strength.” A day prior, Zelensky revealed that the 28-point plan had been reduced in scope, with certain provisions removed. Trump, through social media, expressed his desire to meet with Presidents Zelensky and Putin “soon, but ONLY when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages,” and later indicated that the agreement would involve land concessions “both ways” and efforts to address border issues.

The negotiations concluded with a declaration that the deadline for the agreement’s completion was tied to its conclusion. Prior to this, the Kremlin had stated that Russia had not yet been consulted on the new draft deal, and cautioned that substantial amendments to last week’s plan could render it unacceptable. As of Tuesday morning, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed that the Kremlin had not received a copy of the new plan, accusing Europe of undermining U.S. peace efforts. Despite the White House’s expressed optimism, European leaders remained skeptical, doubting that a ceasefire was achievable after nearly four years of conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron indicated a lack of Russian willingness for a ceasefire, while Downing Street emphasized the significant challenges and “tough road ahead” that remained. Discussions were held in Abu Dhabi on Monday and Tuesday between American officials and Russian representatives, though key disagreements, including security guarantees for Kyiv and control of several eastern regions within Ukraine where fighting continues, remained unresolved. A meeting of the coalition of the willing – a loose grouping of Ukraine’s allies – was also chaired, with tentative discussions ongoing regarding a potential peacekeeping force.

During the call, which included US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the leaders agreed to establish a task force with the United States to “accelerate” work on security guarantees for Ukraine. The issue of security guarantees represents only one of the many areas of disagreement between Moscow and Kyiv. On Monday, President Zelenskyy stated that the “main problem” blocking a peaceful resolution was Russian President Putin’s demand for the legal recognition of the territory Russia had seized. Moscow has consistently demanded the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the entirety of the Donbas region, encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk areas. Furthermore, Russian forces maintain control over the Crimean peninsula – which Russia annexed in 2014 – and substantial portions of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Following weeks of stalled diplomacy, a period of heightened activity commenced after a US-backed plan was leaked. The initial draft included Ukraine’s agreement to cede territories under its control, a pledge not to join NATO, and a significant reduction in the size of its armed forces – elements that appeared to align closely with key Kremlin demands. While Putin characterized the draft as a potential “basis” for a deal, President Zelenskyy countered that Ukraine faced a critical choice between maintaining the United States as a partner and preserving its “dignity.” European leaders subsequently voiced objections to several of the draft’s provisions. Just prior to talks in Geneva on Sunday, with American, European, and Ukrainian officials present, Secretary of State Rubio publicly affirmed that the plan was “authored by the US,” seeking to clarify its origins.

A group of senators recently asserted that Donald Trump had privately informed them the proposed draft resembled a “Russian draft,” diverging from the White House’s stated position. Following this claim, both the United States and Ukraine have acknowledged progress on the draft, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stating it represented “the right approach” after securing revisions. Despite Trump’s initial advocacy for Ukraine to quickly accept the plan, the former president told reporters on Tuesday that the original version “was just a map,” adding, “That was not a plan, it was a concept.” On the same day, Bloomberg published a transcript of a call between Trump’s diplomatic envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy aide, reportedly dated October 14th. The transcript detailed Witkoff’s suggestions regarding how the Kremlin should engage with Trump, and his assertion that Ukraine would need to cede territory to achieve a peace agreement. Trump subsequently characterized the transcript as “a very standard form of negotiations.” BBC News has not independently verified the reported leaked call. Fighting persists across the region. On Tuesday night, both Russia and Ukraine reported strikes in Zaporizhzhia, with Ukrainian regional head Ivan Federov stating at least seven people were injured. Yevgeny Balitsky, the Kremlin-installed governor, reported that Kyiv had targeted energy grids under its control, resulting in up to 40,000 residents losing power. As of recent reports, tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of civilians have been killed or injured, and millions have been displaced from their homes since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The invasion of Ukraine commenced in February 2022.