Ukraine's Fate: A Desperate Peace Deal 🕊️💥

World News

US President Donald Trump’s team of negotiators dedicated to brokering a peace deal in Ukraine is expanding rapidly. Facing off against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trusted aide, Kirill Dmitriev, whose persistent diplomatic efforts have consistently prioritized the Kremlin’s demands, the situation has raised questions about potential overreach. Last week, US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll joined a growing roster of dealmakers, traveling to Ukraine to present a new US peace proposal following meetings with a Russian delegation in the United Arab Emirates. “US Army Secretaries are not usually involved in negotiating peace deals,” The New York Times noted in an analysis of the unusual move. Furthermore, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, was added to the negotiations following a November 23 meeting with Ukraine and its European backers in Geneva. Steve Witkoff remains a key figure in the effort and is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from Geneva, acknowledged that “still some work to be done” on the plan presented by Witkoff, adding that President Trump has not voiced any objections.

Sympathies for the ongoing efforts, including the army secretary’s negotiations in Abu Dhabi and Witkoff’s forthcoming meeting with Putin in Moscow, hold little weight. Lindstaedt observed that it would be typical for Senator Rubio, as the top US diplomat, to oversee these diverse discussions, but noted, “I don’t think Rubio is aware of all the activities that are going on, and so he’s not really able to.” She added that Witkoff is ostensibly tasked with coordinating negotiations closely with Rubio, yet this coordination appears to be lacking. “Rubio seems to have been caught off guard,” she stated, also citing Driscoll’s unexpected emergence in the diplomatic arena. Scott Lucas, a specialist in international relations and US foreign policy at the University of Birmingham, suggested that Rubio’s time in the spotlight is likely limited. He characterized Rubio as one of “the adults in the room,” alongside special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, who facilitated the resumption of US military assistance to Ukraine over the summer—primarily through sales of equipment channeled via NATO countries—and the reinstatement of intelligence sharing. Lucas pointed out, however, that Rubio’s influence has waned due to Kellogg’s departure. Furthermore, he noted the misalignment between Rubio’s strategy—focused on strengthening Ukraine’s defenses—and former President Trump’s preference for a swift agreement to end the conflict. At one point, the former president expressed a desire for a resolution “as soon as possible.”

Fighting by Thanksgiving – November 27th – was initially the stated goal, but negotiations subsequently shifted away from that deadline. Lucas explained that while Trump’s new diplomatic efforts aren’t explicitly aligned with Kremlin interests, they focus on securing “win-win” economic projects through revived trade relations with Moscow, potentially involving Ukraine ceding territory to Russian aggression. This shift coincided with a sudden surge in support for Witkoff, the architect of the recently proposed 28-point peace plan. However, this momentum abruptly ceased after Bloomberg published a transcript of a telephone conversation between Witkoff and his Russian counterpart, Dmitriev. The transcript revealed Witkoff allegedly advising Moscow on strategies to gain Trump’s support for the more pro-Russian peace plan. This revelation sparked considerable concern for Kyiv, as it raised the prospect of the vice president becoming involved in indirect deal-making regarding the war in Ukraine.

“Vance is demonstrably anti-Ukraine,” he noted. All the more reason, Lindstaedt explained, for Trump to involve Kushner. “If Trump is uncertain about the loyalty of his government officials,” she stated, “he frequently turns to family.” Trump himself exemplified this approach in an October speech to the Israeli Knesset following the US-engineered Gaza ceasefire deal, stating, “we always bring Jared when we want to get that deal closed.” Lindstaedt characterized Kushner as Trump’s “natural successor,” and, considering his business dealings in Russia, she asserted that it’s in his interest “to ensure there’s peace between Ukraine and Russia so that they can resume normal relations” with Moscow. Parmar, of City St George’s, described Kushner as having “quietly re-emerged as an informal but influential ‘fixer’” within the administration’s efforts to negotiate a peace deal. However, he concluded, “his unofficial yet central involvement has added to the chaotic optics of the negotiations, drawing criticism for bypassing traditional diplomatic channels and raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest stemming from his business ties.”