Ukraine, Modi & Putin: A New World Order? 🌍🤝

World News

When Vladimir Putin last visited India almost exactly four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. That brief visit, limited to just five hours due to the COVID-19 pandemic, saw Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi discuss economic and military cooperation and reaffirm their “special relationship.” Three months later, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine would transform Putin into a global pariah, isolating Russia from the international community and restricting his travel. This visit occurred several years before Donald Trump’s subsequent election and the resulting disruption of closely held US-India relations, characterized by inflammatory rhetoric and significant import tariffs, which plunged Delhi into considerable uncertainty. Against this backdrop of geopolitical turbulence, analysts highlighted the importance of Putin’s trip to India on Thursday – as a symbol of the enduring relationship between the two nations and as a message of resistance against US pressure. The summit takes place at a critical juncture for both countries, with Putin arriving in Delhi after rejecting the latest Ukraine peace proposal offered by the United States, confident that recent gains by Russian forces on the battlefield have bolstered his position. Simultaneously, the US began to publicly pressure India to cease its Russian oil purchases, culminating in the imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on Indian imports by the United States.

Since gaining independence, India has maintained a cautious, multi-alignment foreign policy, reacting negatively to any perceived external interference. The Trump administration’s attempts to meddle and coerce sparked considerable outrage, resulting in the worst decline in US-India relations in years. In response, Pande explained that India has reverted to a strategy of “hedging,” establishing unorthodox alliances to signal to the US that it possesses multiple options and is observing the evolving situation. Just three months prior, a meeting took place between Putin and Modi alongside Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, where the three leaders were photographed holding hands and sharing jokes – an image that fueled fury within the Trump administration. Despite this, India continues to prioritize its relationship with Russia, largely due to the strategic importance of its border with the powerful nation. “From the Indian perspective,” Pande stated, “the significance of the relationship with Russia stems primarily from geography. China remains India’s foremost strategic concern, and since the Soviet era, India has consistently relied on Russia as a continental balancer against that threat.” The increasingly close “no-limits partnership” between Moscow and Beijing has raised concerns in India, prompting a desire to prevent Russia from aligning too closely with China and to secure Moscow’s cooperation in exerting pressure on China. This has also led India to seek a reduction in its reliance on Russia.

For decades, approximately 70% of Indian defense purchases originated from Russia; however, over the past four years, this proportion has decreased to less than 40%. Despite this shift, the sale of weapons and aircraft – particularly Russian S-400 air defense systems and the Sukhoi Su-57 fighter aircraft – will likely remain a key element of the discussions between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin this Friday. “India will aim to strike a balance,” explained Pande, “maintaining sufficient Russian arms purchases to preserve the alliance while avoiding excessive dependence that could leave the country vulnerable if Russia were to suddenly cut off supplies under pressure from China.” Despite the visible warmth of their public engagements, including shared golf buggy rides, Pande emphasized that “this is a relationship fundamentally rooted in realpolitik.” Alongside defense matters, the summit is expected to address growing economic cooperation and bilateral trade between the two nations. The Russian shift has contributed to a slowdown in purchases by the Indian private sector. Furthermore, in a recent briefing, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, acknowledged existing “obstacles” in economic and energy cooperation between the countries, stating that these would continue uninterrupted. Peskov asserted that Western sanctions would only result in “insignificant drops and decreases” in Russian oil exports to India – and only for a “very brief time,” adding that Moscow possesses the technology to circumvent sanctions in the long run.

According to analysts, Vladimir Putin’s appearance saw limited discussion of Ukraine, primarily focused on India’s repeated calls for peace. They emphasized that Prime Minister Modi’s influence in the global effort to halt the war was unlikely to be significant. “While Modi can engage in conversations with both Putin and Zelenskyy,” explained Pande, “India lacks the leverage necessary to impact the situation on either side of the conflict.”