Ukraine's Fate: War, Deals & A Dark Future đź’” đź’Ą

US special envoy Steve Witkoff will meet with Ukraine’s National Security Council head, Rustem Umerov, in Miami on Thursday for talks, the White House confirmed. Earlier this week, Witkoff spent nearly five hours in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, which the Kremlin described as yielding “no compromise” regarding the end of the war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump characterized the talks as “reasonably good,” noting that it was too early to assess their potential outcome, stating, “it does take two to tango.” Putin subsequently indicated that reaching a consensus would be a challenging endeavor, emphasizing Russia’s continued demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Donbas region – an area currently occupied by Russian forces. During an interview with India Today, which preceded Putin’s two-day visit to the country, Putin stated, “It all comes down to this. Either we liberate these territories by force of arms or Ukrainian troops will leave these territories and stop fighting there.” Wednesday’s discussions in Moscow were also attended by Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. When questioned on Wednesday about whether Witkoff and Kushner believed Putin desired an end to the conflict, Trump said Putin “would like to end the war. That was their impression.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybhia criticized Putin for “wasting the world’s time,” while Ukraine’s ambassador to the US stated that Ukraine “does not need to” engage in such discussions.

Negotiations with Russia continued, with Ambassador Olga Stefanishyna stating that “there was not too much progress” at this stage, yet talks were ongoing. She emphasized Ukraine’s firm commitment to achieving a “just and lasting peace” within the country. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier on Wednesday indicated that “the world clearly feels that there is a real opportunity to end the war,” but stressed that these negotiations required “pressure on Russia.” A key point of contention remained Ukraine's potential membership into NATO, a proposal vehemently opposed by Russia, and also echoed by former President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed no intention of allowing Kyiv into the alliance. The Kremlin acknowledged that the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO was a “key question” addressed during discussions in Moscow. Senior foreign policy advisor to Putin, Dmitry Ushakov, suggested that recent military successes had bolstered Russia’s negotiating stance, noting that “Russian soldiers had helped make the assessments of our foreign partners regarding the paths to a peace settlement more appropriate.” Prior to the U.S. visit to the Kremlin, footage emerged of President Putin, wearing army fatigues, receiving briefings from command post commanders who reported the conquest of the strategically important city of Pokrovsk, along with surrounding settlements. Fighting in Pokrovsk remained ongoing.

Russian forces do not yet control the entirety of the city, yet Russian officials evidently intend for their message of military gains to be understood by the United States. Over recent weeks, Russian forces have achieved some incremental advances in the east and intensified their campaign. According to an analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces seized approximately 701 square kilometers (270 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in November, and currently control 19.3% of Ukrainian territory. On Wednesday, the Kremlin stated that President Putin was prepared to continue meeting with American counterparts “as many times as needed.” Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) has voiced opposition to the proposed loan, asserting that it would not serve as a backstop for reparations funding. The proposed loan, initially planned at €140 billion, has been scaled down.