Ukraine's Future: A Nail-Biting Deal? 🇺🇦🔥

World News

Zelenskyy's Berlin Summit: A Show of Force
Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with British, French, German, and Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in a show of support hosted by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. European leaders, including Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, will also meet with Zelenskyy on Monday. Following criticism of previous US proposals to end the Russian invasion as overly favorable to Moscow, the British Prime Minister and heads of NATO and the EU are scheduled to convene with Zelenskyy that evening at Merz’s offices in central Berlin. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who held a second round of peace talks with Zelenskyy in Berlin on Sunday, were also invited to the working dinner. Witkoff stated on social media that “a lot of progress was made” after his and Kushner’s five and a half-hour meeting with Zelenskyy at Merz’s chancellery. A photograph released by Merz’s team depicted him seated alongside Zelenskyy, across the table from Witkoff and Kushner, although Chancellor Merz did not participate in the discussions.

Donbas Dispute: The Core Obstacle
The search for viable terms to end the war has encountered significant obstacles, primarily a dispute over control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, which is largely occupied by Russian forces. On Sunday, President Zelenskyy indicated his willingness to abandon Ukraine’s pursuit of NATO membership if the United States and other Western nations provided Kyiv with legally binding security guarantees mirroring those offered to existing NATO members. He stated, “(T)oday, bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the US, Article 5-like guarantees for us from the US, and security guarantees from European colleagues, as well as other countries – Canada, Japan – are an opportunity to prevent another Russian invasion.” Furthermore, Zelenskyy expressed hope that Washington would accept maintaining the current frontline situation rather than Ukraine ceding the entirety of the Donbas region – encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts – characterizing this as the “fairest possible option.”

NATO Membership: A Negotiating Lever
President Zelenskyy’s willingness to abandon NATO membership as a bargaining chip highlights the critical role the alliance plays in Ukraine’s security calculations. He believed that securing bilateral security guarantees from the US and other Western nations would be a more effective deterrent against further Russian aggression than seeking full NATO membership. This signaled a shift in strategy, aimed at obtaining immediate security assurances while navigating the complex political landscape surrounding NATO expansion.

US Concerns & Shifting Geopolitical Realities
Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed impatience to conclude the four-year conflict, initially aiming for a resolution by Thanksgiving – at the end of November – and now targeting Christmas as a deadline for a ceasefire. Senior European officials, including those working alongside Macron and Starmer to bolster Ukraine’s defense, recently cautioned that “the decades of the ‘Pax Americana’ are largely over for us in Europe and for us in Germany as well.” The term “Pax Americana” refers to Europe’s historical reliance on the United States’ military and diplomatic efforts to maintain global peace and security. This reflected a growing recognition of a changing geopolitical landscape, where the United States’ role as the primary guarantor of European security was diminishing.

Putin’s Ambitions & a ‘New Soviet Union’
Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that President Putin’s objective is “a fundamental change to the borders in Europe, the restoration of the old Soviet Union within its borders.” He added that “If Ukraine falls, he won’t stop.” This stark assessment revealed Putin’s long-term goals, indicating a desire to reshape Europe’s political order and potentially reestablish Russian influence.

Enduring Support and a ‘Lasting Peace’
France is, and will remain, at Ukraine’s side to build a robust and lasting peace – one that can guarantee Ukraine’s security and sovereignty, and that of Europe, over the long term.” In London, Blaise Metreweli, the newly appointed head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service, MI6 – the first woman to lead the agency – was scheduled to warn that Russia poses an “aggressive, expansionist” threat. According to advance extracts of her speech, Metreweli was to affirm that “Putin should be in no doubt, our support is enduring. The pressure we apply on Ukraine’s behalf will be sustained.”